He noted that despite the Kremlin's strategic intention to put the Ukrainian state under control, the situation may develop along these two main scenarios. The first, he said, is "full-scale military aggression, which is now the most problematic and dangerous for the Kremlin itself, but which the Armed Forces of Russia are getting ready hard for," Turchynov wrote. The second scenario is hybrid warfare, which is the most probable one, according to the official. "This scenario assumes further low-intensity fighting in [eastern Ukraine], which does not exclude the possibility of local offensive operations by the Russian regular and irregular units, as well as subversive activities in the rest of Ukraine. At the same time, the Russians deliberately and systematically violate the Minsk agreements, constantly shelling the positions of our troops, in particular, using the heavy weapons that are prohibited by these agreements," Turchynov said. He stressed that the long-term nature of the Russian threat against the background of sustainable aggravation of instability in Europe and the rest of the world forms an external security environment around Ukraine and determines the highest priority of Ukraine's national security policy.